Axie Infinity defined an era. The play-to-earn phenomenon reached 2.7 million daily users at its peak and pushed AXS to an all-time high of $165 in November 2021. Today, the token trades around $1, representing a 99% decline that mirrors the broader collapse of speculative blockchain gaming models.

The question facing traders isn't whether AXS can return to its 2021 heights, but whether Sky Mavis can execute a turnaround through Atia's Legacy and improved tokenomics. This analysis examines the factors that will determine AXS price action through 2026 and beyond.

Current Market Position

AXS trades near $1.03 with a market capitalization around $170 million, ranking it among the top 200 cryptocurrencies despite its dramatic fall from grace. The token's 24-hour trading volume regularly exceeds $100 million during volatile periods, indicating sustained speculative interest despite reduced fundamental activity.

The fully diluted valuation sits around $278 million, with approximately 100 million tokens still subject to emission schedules. Full token circulation is expected by early 2026, meaning near-term price action must absorb remaining supply pressure.

Technical Analysis Overview

Short-term indicators paint a mixed picture. The 50-day moving average trends below current price levels while the 200-day MA shows long-term weakness dating back to mid-2025. RSI readings hover in neutral territory, suggesting neither oversold bounce potential nor overbought correction risk.

Key price levels to monitor:

Support Zones

• $0.85-$0.90: Historical accumulation area
• $0.60-$0.65: Cycle low territory from late 2025

Resistance Zones

• $1.40-$1.65: Near-term ceiling where selling pressure emerges
• $2.30-$2.50: Significant resistance requiring fundamental catalysts

Volume patterns suggest accumulation at lower levels, though conviction remains weak without clear gameplay catalysts. The token tends to move with broader altcoin sentiment rather than on project-specific news.

Price Predictions by Timeframe

Short-Term (Q1-Q2 2026)

Analyst consensus clusters around $0.90-$1.50 for the first half of 2026. The January 2026 halt of automated SLP emissions removes one inflationary pressure, but the market has largely priced in this change. Near-term catalysts remain limited until Atia's Legacy progresses toward public release.

Bearish scenarios target $0.60-$0.80 if broader crypto markets correct or Atia's Legacy development faces delays. Bullish outcomes require successful playtest reception and renewed media attention on the MMO expansion.

Medium-Term (2026-2027)

Predictions diverge significantly for this period. Conservative models from CoinCodex suggest AXS may trade between $0.60-$1.04 through 2026, with gradual recovery to $0.80-$1.00 by early 2027.

More optimistic forecasts anticipate $2-$5 if Atia's Legacy launches successfully and attracts meaningful player numbers. The wide range reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Sky Mavis can execute its ambitious roadmap.

Factors favoring the bull case include reduced token emissions, potential land NFT utility in the new MMO, and the broader Web3 gaming market projected to grow at 16-22% CAGR through 2030.

Long-Term (2028-2030)

Extended forecasts become increasingly speculative. Some models project gradual appreciation to $5-$15 by 2030 if Axie establishes itself as a sustainable gaming ecosystem rather than a speculative vehicle. Others see continued decline toward sub-$1 levels as competition intensifies.

The most bullish long-term predictions, which target $50+ prices, assume blockchain gaming achieves mainstream adoption and Axie captures meaningful market share. These scenarios require multiple assumptions to align favorably.

Catalysts That Could Move AXS

Atia's Legacy Launch

The upcoming MMO represents Axie's most significant catalyst since the original play-to-earn boom. First playtests ran in late 2025 with approximately 1,000 participants, and a global launch is scheduled for 2026.

Key elements that could impact AXS price:

Integration with Existing Assets — Land NFTs, Mystic Axies, and evolved creatures will reportedly provide advantages in Atia's Legacy. If implemented well, this could drive renewed demand for ecosystem assets and the AXS token used to acquire them.

Squad-Based Gameplay — The shift from turn-based battles to real-time squad combat addresses criticisms that previous Axie games lacked depth. Whether this resonates with broader gaming audiences remains to be seen.

Guild Warfare — Plans for guild-based territorial control could create genuine token sinks and social coordination that sustains engagement beyond initial curiosity.

Tokenomics Improvements

Sky Mavis has systematically addressed the inflationary pressures that contributed to AXS and SLP collapse. July 2025 saw AXS staking emissions halved, reducing overall inflation by 35%. January 2026 brought the complete halt of automated SLP farming rewards.

These changes won't immediately reverse price trends, but they establish prerequisites for sustainable appreciation. The community treasury holds approximately 23 million AXS for ecosystem development, providing resources for future initiatives without additional dilution. Understanding how staking works helps contextualize these tokenomic improvements.

Broader Gaming Sector Trends

The Web3 gaming market is projected to grow from $38 billion in 2025 to $175 billion by 2035 according to industry research. Sky Mavis maintains approximately 15% market share among blockchain gaming platforms, suggesting potential tailwinds if the sector recovers.

However, 2025 proved brutal for gaming tokens. Over 90% of new token launches failed to maintain value, and studio closures accelerated across the sector. Survival requires demonstrating genuine gameplay value rather than relying on speculative dynamics.

Risks to Consider

Competition and Relevance

Axie no longer dominates blockchain gaming attention. Projects like Pixels, Star Atlas, and traditional studios experimenting with Web3 elements compete for the same audiences. The first-mover advantage that propelled Axie's 2021 surge has eroded.

The team acknowledges this reality. Co-founder Jeffrey Zirlin admitted Axie "played too safe" in 2025 and pledged "much larger risks" in 2026. Whether this pivot succeeds will significantly impact token value.

Execution Risk

Atia's Legacy faces considerable development challenges. Building an MMO that satisfies both existing community expectations and attracts new players requires balancing competing priorities. Previous Axie updates, including Origins and Homeland, delivered mixed results.

The game's complexity means development timelines could slip. Each delay extends the period where AXS must trade on anticipation rather than demonstrated results.

Regulatory Uncertainty

Play-to-earn mechanics face increasing regulatory scrutiny. While the shift toward "play-and-own" messaging reduces some concerns, the fundamental integration of tokens with gaming remains subject to evolving policy frameworks across jurisdictions.

Historical Precedent

Few crypto projects have successfully recovered from 99% drawdowns. The structural dynamics that drove Axie's collapse, primarily unsustainable player acquisition economics, were fundamental rather than temporary. Genuine recovery requires demonstrating a fundamentally different value proposition.

Trading Strategies

Accumulation Approach

Traders with conviction in Atia's Legacy may consider averaging into positions during periods of weakness. The $0.80-$1.00 range offers relatively favorable risk/reward if the MMO launch succeeds. Learning what spot trading entails helps newer traders understand this direct ownership approach.

Spot positions allow participation without leverage risk, appropriate given the binary nature of upcoming catalysts. This approach requires patience and acceptance of potential further downside.

Event-Driven Trading

Futures contracts enable positioning around specific catalysts like playtest announcements or launch dates. The token's tendency toward sharp moves on news creates opportunities for directional bets.

Understanding leverage risks becomes essential given AXS volatility. Position sizing should account for potential gaps and sudden reversals common in low-liquidity gaming tokens.

Hedging Existing Exposure

Holders of Axie NFTs or staked AXS may consider hedging strategies to protect against further downside while maintaining exposure to upside scenarios. Short futures positions can offset potential losses if the MMO launch disappoints.

What Would Change the Outlook

Bullish Shifts

• Atia's Legacy achieving 500,000+ sustained daily players
• Major gaming studio partnership or acquisition interest
• Broader crypto bull market lifting altcoin valuations
• Successful implementation of land utility driving NFT demand

Bearish Shifts

• Atia's Legacy launch delays beyond mid-2026
• Player numbers remaining below 100,000 post-launch
• Additional security incidents affecting Ronin ecosystem
• Regulatory actions targeting play-to-earn mechanics

A Recovery Built on Reinvention

AXS price predictions range from continued decline below $1 to potential recovery toward $5-$10, with outcomes heavily dependent on Atia's Legacy execution. The token no longer trades on play-to-earn speculation but on whether Sky Mavis can build genuinely engaging games that happen to use blockchain technology.

The reduced emissions schedule and accumulated development experience provide better fundamentals than the 2021-2022 period. Whether these translate into price appreciation depends on factors that remain genuinely uncertain: Can the MMO attract players? Will guild mechanics create sustainable engagement? Does the broader gaming market embrace Web3 ownership models?

For traders, AXS represents a high-risk, high-potential-reward position in the blockchain gaming narrative. The asymmetric setup favors small allocations that could multiply significantly on success while limiting damage from continued stagnation.

Trade AXS on LeveX spot or futures markets, and explore our Crypto in a Minute guides to understand other blockchain gaming projects and the evolving Web3 ecosystem.