Everyone's asking the wrong question about Bitcoin's 35% crash. "Is this the bottom?" assumes the market works like a light switch. It doesn't.

The real question: Who's still selling, and why? Answer that, and you understand what comes next. The data tells a story the headlines are missing entirely.

The Number Nobody's Talking About

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research dropped a stat last week that should be plastered on every trading screen: the average purchase price across all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows since January 2024 is $90,146.

Read that again. Every institutional buyer who piled into BlackRock's IBIT, Fidelity's FBTC, and the rest of the ETF complex has an average cost basis right around current prices. With Bitcoin hovering in the low $80,000s, the average ETF holder is underwater.

This creates a psychological minefield. Slight bounces to $95K trigger relief selling from buyers desperate to exit at breakeven. Slight dips to $85K trigger panic selling from buyers who can't stomach being deeper in the red. The $90K zone has become a gravitational trap where both bulls and bears get punished.

BlackRock's IBIT alone bled $2.47 billion in November, accounting for 63% of the total $3.79 billion that exited all spot Bitcoin ETFs. That's institutional rebalancing, not capitulation. There's a difference, and understanding it matters.

Mechanical vs. Fundamental: The Distinction That Changes Everything

The Kobeissi Letter framed this crash perfectly: throughout this 45-day bear market, crypto has seen little to no bearish fundamental developments. They called it a "mechanical bear market," driven by leverage unwinding rather than structural deterioration.

CryptoQuant's analysis sharpens this further. October's $19 billion liquidation event was predominantly spot-driven, meaning actual holders chose to sell. November's cascade? Almost entirely leverage liquidations. On November 21 alone, $1.78 billion of the $2 billion wipeout came from long positions getting margin-called.

This distinction is everything. Spot selling signals conviction change. Liquidations signal poor risk management. The former suggests a trend reversal. The latter suggests the weak hands are gone.

Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures has dropped 35% from October's peak near $94 billion. That's roughly $33 billion in speculative leverage flushed from the system. Less leverage means less forced selling on future dips. The market is resetting, not collapsing.

The Whale Divergence: What On-Chain Data Actually Shows

Here's where it gets interesting. Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score reveals a stark behavioral split between different holder cohorts.

Whales holding over 10,000 BTC spent three months as heavy sellers, driving much of the downward pressure. But in the past two weeks, their score has flipped to neutral (0.5). They've stopped selling. Meanwhile, wallets holding 100-1,000 BTC are in full accumulation mode. The strongest buying pressure is coming from this mid-tier cohort, the sophisticated holders with enough capital to matter but without the market-moving obligations of the mega-whales.

The numbers back this up. Wallets holding 1,000+ BTC hit 1,384 this week, a four-month high and up 2.2% from recent lows. CryptoQuant data shows whales accumulated over 45,000 BTC in a single week, the second-largest weekly accumulation of 2025.

Retail traders are panic-selling into Fear & Greed readings of 11, the lowest since the Terra Luna collapse in May 2022. Whales are buying what retail is dumping. This divergence has historically preceded significant recoveries, though timing remains uncertain.

The Sellers Are Changing

Three types of sellers dominated November:

Forced sellers (leverage): Done. The liquidation cascades have largely run their course. Open interest is down 35%, and funding rates have normalized. There's simply less leveraged exposure left to unwind.

Panic sellers (retail): Exhausted. Fear & Greed at 11 signals capitulation. Bitcoin's daily RSI hit 26, its lowest since February, placing the asset firmly in oversold territory. The weak hands have already folded.

Profit-takers (OG whales and institutions): Still present, but slowing. One Satoshi-era whale moved 11,000 BTC ($1.3 billion) to exchanges. IBIT saw record outflows. But the pace is decelerating, and accumulation from mid-tier whales is offsetting the distribution.

The character of selling is shifting. That's not the same as a bottom forming, but it's a prerequisite for one.

The LeveX Take: This Is an Accumulation Phase, Not a Buying Opportunity

Let's be direct. Calling this a "buying opportunity" is lazy analysis. Buying opportunities imply you should act now. The data suggests something more nuanced: we've entered an accumulation phase where patient, systematic positioning beats aggressive dip-buying.

Here's why. When Fear & Greed drops below 10, Bitcoin's median 30-day return is only 2.1%, according to Benzinga's historical analysis. Roughly 63% of those periods end positive, but the gains are modest and the path is choppy. Bottoms grind, they don't spike.

The $90,146 ETF cost basis creates a ceiling of overhead supply that will cap rallies until those holders either capitulate or get absorbed by stronger hands. Bitcoin can bounce to $95K and immediately face selling pressure from ETF investors trying to exit at breakeven. That dynamic doesn't disappear overnight.

The strategic approach: scale in over weeks, not days. Treat current prices as a zone, not a point. The traders who outperform in this environment are the ones who build positions gradually while others either panic-sell or FOMO-buy.

Positioning for the Grind

LeveX's Multi-Trade Mode was built for exactly this scenario. Rather than committing full capital at one price, you can establish multiple positions at different levels with independent margin and leverage settings.

Practical application: open a small spot position via BTC-USDT at current levels. Set limit orders for additional entries at $78K, $75K, and $72K. Use isolated margin on futures for tactical positions that don't risk your core holdings. If Bitcoin grinds lower, your average entry improves. If it bounces, you're already exposed.

The key variable is position sizing. With fear this extreme, the risk isn't being wrong about direction. It's being too aggressive too early. Reserve capital for the grind.

Where This Goes

Bitcoin's crash wasn't caused by fundamental deterioration. No protocol failures, no major exchange collapses, no regulatory bombshells. The ETF infrastructure remains intact. The halving supply dynamics remain intact. What broke was positioning, not the asset.

The selloff is changing character. Forced liquidations have largely run their course. Retail capitulation is at multi-year extremes. Whale accumulation is accelerating while distribution from OG holders is slowing. These aren't signals of imminent reversal, but they are prerequisites for one.

The crowd is debating whether this is "the bottom." That's the wrong frame. The better question is whether the worst of the forced selling is behind us. The data suggests it is. What remains is a grind through overhead supply, likely centered around that $90,146 ETF cost basis.

Traders who recognize this phase for what it is, an accumulation window rather than a moment for heroic dip-buying, will be positioned when the character of the market shifts again.

Build your position systematically through LeveX spot trading or explore leveraged exposure via BTC perpetual futures. For foundational context on Bitcoin's mechanics and investment thesis, explore our Crypto in a Minute series.